Investment Blogs

April 30, 2010

Trade Alert – RELM

Filed under: Uncategorized — syndic @ 6:45 pm

Bought 500,000 shares at .0012. There is good support at .0011, plus financials are due out next week.

NOTE: This was not the stock I referred to in my last post.

Trade Alert – AMNG

Filed under: Uncategorized — syndic @ 6:22 pm

Sold all 10,000 shares at .0651 for a $120 profit. I did this in order to buy another stock, however, I might have missed that one. We'll see.

Happy Friday

Filed under: Uncategorized — syndic @ 4:50 pm
Happy Friday, well, probably only for the bears today since the market is down. But this isn't all that surprising. My colleague Helene Meisler at RealMoney.com wrote today that the market has been down in 8 of the last 13 final trading days of the month since the March 2009 bottom. Today the pattern is holding.

Nonetheless, April has been another positive month for the market. If the S&P 500 were to close at current levels (1195), it would be up +2.1% for the month. Not bad.

Goldman Sachs (GS) is weighing on the financial complex after a federal criminal probe has been opened to examine the firm. That's the problem with these SEC lawsuits, they just open to door to more lawsuits which become a distraction for the firm, not to mention the legal costs.

The downdraft in the market is overshadowning a few very positive economic reports that were released this morning. To wit, Q1 GDP came in at 3.2%, basically in-line with estimates, but the consumer spending component of the report (+3.6%) showed its biggest gain since the beginning of 2007.

Also, the Univ. of Mich. consumer confidence report rose to 72.2, up from a preliminary reading of 69.5. And the Chicago Purchasing Managers index rose to 63.8, which marks the highest reading since 2005. These are strong reports that confirm the ongoing economic recovery we are seeing. Despite the positive news, my sense is that there are still many skeptics among us, and that will keep the 'wall of worry' firmly in place.

The dollar is weak today as the euro bounces on optimism that Greece will get some sort of aid. The weaker dollar is supporting commodity prices, with oil up to $85.70, and gold pushing higher to $1180. The gold etf (GLD) has broken out to new highs for the year, and looks like it will test its December highs.

Asian markets were mostly higher overnight; the 10-year yield is lower again to 3.66%; and the VIX is +11.6% higher as fear creeps back in the market, to 20.56, which is still below Tuesday's high of 23.20.

Trading comment: I have been waiting for a pullback, and today I may start by putting just a little bit of money to work. I don't mind nibbling on the way down, and putting some cash to work in stages. I will start with stocks that reported strong earnings but pulled back anyway. Today I am starting to bid on some GMCR.

long GLD, GMCR

Free Air Conditioning in the House

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: , — Dawn @ 1:04 pm
One of the best investments anyone can make for using their AC less and cool the house down is an Indoor/Outdoor thermometer. Our goal this year is to see how long we can go in the Colorado heat without using our air conditioner. The worst days are during July and August, but my hope is that we can make it through the entire summer without flipping the switch.

I check everyday for:
  • How to bundle up when taking my dog for a walk
  • Seeing if the heat in the house is my imagination or not
  • Rooms that might be hotter than they should be
A wireless version, indoor/outdoor thermometer has save a bundle. In the picture; the bottom temp is the outdoor temp  and the top one is the indoor temp. When it is cooler outside than inside, the windows go up and I let the air inside. But when the outside temperature rises above my inside temperature then I close up and shutter the blinds to keep it cool in the house.

For me, comfortable is around 72 degrees during the day, but at night I prefer it cooler, so with the wireless version I make sure the bedroom is always cooler than the rest of the house. I keep shades pulled (even if the window is cracked) and I keep the door closed to keep the cool air in.

Already this spring, I hear others’ AC running strong, I am happy in the knowledge that I am getting “free AC” and a natural fan blowing through my windows, while breaking no sweat at all.

Happy Summer to you all!


April 29, 2010

Lunar Phases: Redux 3

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: — Joe @ 7:12 pm

A brief follow-up to the moon-bugs out there. One more notch in your belt. The lunar cycle theory was true to form once again for the phase that ended with last nights full moon. Here's the scorecard:

Many of you are probably yawning right now and saying to yourselves "Please, not again about the lunar cycle!" The more astute among you out there will find a light bulb turning on above their heads and will be shouting "Eureka!".

We've complete eleven complete cycles since I started posting these statistics providing some startling observations. The most important is that the waning to new moon periods produced a sum total return of 30.79 while the sum total return of the waxing to full moon periods was a loss of 5.42%.

You can use this "reality" in any way you might want but here are a few:

  1. Use the lunar cycle to temper your expectations. If we're in a waxing to full moon period, expect the market to wind up lower than when it started; if it winds up being higher that count that as a windfall (this is basically the most I expect from the lunar phase theory).
  2. Time trading decisions according to the lunar cycle since your might at least get a jump start towards your goal. If you're thinking of selling stock, do so during the waxing to new period because the there's a high probability the market will trend lower over the next cycle and, vice-versa, if you you want to buy, do so during the waning to full period since stocks have a high probability of being higher in the next phase (sorry, I just go this far).
  3. Finally, dump all your stocks, switch to trading the SPY only (or its souped up Ultra or 2x cousins) and buy and sell them at the beginning and end of each phase. (mechanistic but, who knows, it might just work and it eliminates the need for stock selection?)

Where are we now? If it follows suit one more time then the S&P 500 should be higher than 1191 on May 14. How much, I can't say but if you throw out the two negative results (especially the one for June 22, 2009), then the average of 3.97% for each of the ten remaining months produces a close on May 14 of somewhere between 1230-1240. O.K., everyone load up the trucks.

Trade Update – IARO & AMNG

Filed under: Uncategorized — syndic @ 6:24 pm

IARO - Sold all 198,500 shares at .0029 for a $60 loss. I did not like how the bid and ask size went from 5000 to 500,000. That usually means there are a lot more shares in the float all of a sudden.

AMNG - Bought 10,000 shares at .051. Going to try this one again, there "should" be great support at .05.

82 weakest stocks

Filed under: Uncategorized — syndic @ 10:50 am
These 82 stocks are in the bottom 20% by 6, 3 and 1 month momentum.
ADM
AKS
ALGN
AONE
APOL
APWR
ATHN
AZN
BAX
BBVA
BEC
BG
BLK
BSBR
BSX
CCJ
CHRS
CMO
CRL
CRZO
DEER
DT
E
EBR
ENER
FE
FII
FORM
FRX
FTE
FUQI
GAME
GILD
GOOG
GPN
GRS
GSK
HEAT
HOC
HTCH
ING
IPI
KG
LPS
MASI
MFC
MON
MOT
NETC
NITE
NOK
OTE
OVIP
PBR.A
PEGA
PFE
PPL
PWRD
QCOM
REP
RINO
SAI
SINA
SNY
SOHU
SPWRA
SQM
STD
SVA
TEF
TLCR
TMX
TNE
TOT
TYP
UEPS
VITC
VIV
VNDA
WAG
WHI
ZRAN


Free riding for fun and profit

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: — mbhunter @ 7:06 am

AOL and I will never, ever be BFF.  EVER.  They even told me so.  Here’s my story:

Let’s go waaaaaaay back to 2000.  Back to a time when every American’s mailbox was absolutely stuffed to the gills with AOL discs.  One fine mid-Atlantic day I wanted some World Wide Web on my computer.  I knew Netzero still had some free numbers around, but the only place I knew to find them was on … the World Wide Web.  Which I couldn’t access since I had just moved to a completely new mid-Atlantic area and didn’t have a local number.  (Remember dialup?)

But, thankfully, I still had seven AOL free trial CDs.  Once the light bulb went on it was only a matter of about 23 seconds before I could lay my hands on one.  So I started my free trial, got on the WWW, found my local Netzero number, and once I verified that I could hook up with Netzero, I got on the horn to AOL to cancel my free trial.

Now, I do suppose it was rubbing it in their face a bit (a) calling them up to cancel only twenty minutes after signing up, and (b) telling them with complete honesty that I used their free trial to download the software for a free access plan.  But I don’t think I’ve ever experienced ruder treatment from any customer service representative than what happened in the 45 seconds that followed that.  The guy wasn’t just short with me.  He was ticked. He didn’t even try to keep me as an AOL customer.  He just ripped up one side of me and down the other, told me in no uncertain terms that I’d never get a free trial with AOL again, threw the cancellation confirmation at me, and ended the call.

Nonetheless, his assessment of my intentions was right on the money.  He was spot on in cutting me off, and doing it quickly, because free riders kill profits. I pegged myself as an obvious free rider, and they treated me accordingly.  They dangled a carrot in front of my face, and I grabbed it before getting whacked with the stick, but they made sure that I never got another chance at a carrot.

AOL, of course, was in its heyday then, and it went downhill from there, but it was wise in its dealings with me.  Many other companies aren’t so wise in dealing with free riders, and they pay for it.  But if they pay for it, it means that the free riders aren’t, which is good for free riders!  I maintain that free riding is completely ethical. If someone plays by a company’s rules and gets goods or services for below cost or even free, then it’s no one’s fault but the company’s for tolerating it.  It means that the company isn’t paying close enough attention to capping the cost of acquiring a customer.  It’s not a bad idea to bait potential customers with a freebie, but once it becomes clear that the potential customer has no potential any more, the company should show them the door.  Some companies need more clarity than others.

Here are a few ways to take advantage of free riding, and what the companies may do to stop it:

  1. Reward credit cards. I love my rewards credit card.  I get free use of the issuer’s money for a few weeks, the convenience of not carrying a wad of cash around, fraud protection, and a rebate!  They’re paying me to use their card, as long as I use it only for convenience and I pay my bill in full each month!  How can they stop it? In light of new regulations, they can start charging me for the privilege of not carrying a balance.  If I don’t like it, I can cancel, of course, but that’s what they’d want me to do.
  2. Coupon your groceries to almost nothing. Kathy Spencer is one of the biggest free riders out there with grocery shopping.  A few hours a week nets her essentially free groceries, week after week.  She pays with her time, but it’s not a bad rate per hour!  How can the grocery stores stop it? By not doubling coupons, by not allowing combined coupons, by instituting minimum purchases, etc.  They don’t have to make it so easy for her! ;)
  3. Free trials of just about anything. If a free trial of whatever is offered, why not use it?  It’s purely a business decision to offer a free trial.  Some will pay after the trial, and some won’t, but I don’t see an ethical dilemma brewing for deciding not to continue paying for the service.  How can they stop it? They can stop offering the trial, or reduce the appeal of the trial.  Or, at least, not offer it twice to the same person.

Free riding may end up being short-lived, but why not use it for fun and profit?  If you don’t, someone else will!

Like someone else with an AOL disc.

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April 28, 2010

Fed Stands Pat On Interest Rates

Filed under: Uncategorized — syndic @ 6:41 pm
The Federal Reserve said the U.S. economy continues to strengthen, but that the slack left over from the recession is still so large that it expects interest rates to stay near zero for an "extended period."

The Fed also said the labor market is beginning to improve but still-high unemployment is keeping a lid on consumer spending.

After its two-day meeting, the Fed said it was in no rush to tighten policy, sticking to its forecast that economic slack, low inflation and stable inflation expectations should call for record-low rates for "an extended period."

Central bankers said there was no timeframe to "extended period."

Trade Alert – IARO

Filed under: Uncategorized — syndic @ 6:37 pm

Bought 198,500 shares at .0031.

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